After opening day it only gets harder

[Phantom]

According to the prevailing notion among most gun hunters, it is commonly held that after the culmination of opening day, the likelihood of harvesting a deer progressively diminishes. If we were to quantify the perceived difficulty level, expressed as a percentage, of securing a deer beyond the initial day, what would be an accurate estimation? Alternatively, do you believe this sentiment lacks statistical evidence and is merely a baseless conjecture?

[Redneck4Life]

16 minutes ago, Phantom said:

According to the prevailing notion among most gun hunters, it is commonly held that after the culmination of opening day, the likelihood of harvesting a deer progressively diminishes. If we were to quantify the perceived difficulty level, expressed as a percentage, of securing a deer beyond the initial day, what would be an accurate estimation? Alternatively, do you believe this sentiment lacks statistical evidence and is merely a baseless conjecture?

Not really we hunted heavily pressured state land but @Swamp_bucks killed a beautiful buck today. Deer are gonna move just gotta be at right place right time.

[2BuckBizCT]

Not so sure. I think people hunt less after the opening weekend. In my hunting career I have gun bucks between 11/15 and 12/3. A few opening day bucks, but the rest aren’t.
 

Early on when I was shooting does each year, I never killed any of them opening weekend. 

[ZAG]

10 hours ago, Phantom said:

According to the prevailing notion among most gun hunters, it is commonly held that after the culmination of opening day, the likelihood of harvesting a deer progressively diminishes. If we were to quantify the perceived difficulty level, expressed as a percentage, of securing a deer beyond the initial day, what would be an accurate estimation? Alternatively, do you believe this sentiment lacks statistical evidence and is merely a baseless conjecture?

I think  it depends on the area each one hunts.
Our area has a good amount of gun hunters but pressure decreases from here on out. Also nobody in our area does deer drives. So for our spot I’d disagree.

Edited November 20, 2023 by ZAG

[Phantom]

13 minutes ago, Redneck4Life said:

Not really we hunted heavily pressured state land but @Swamp_bucks killed a beautiful buck today. Deer are gonna move just gotta be at right place right time.

I often hear people say, "Oh, after the opening day or weekend, it's over." However, I have personally seen and heard about others successfully taking deer well after that period. Therefore, I'm not sure if this statement holds true or not. It may appear that way due to the increased number of hunters in the woods during the opening weekend, but I'm uncertain if there is a significant statistical difference.

[crappyice]

The number of hunters in the woods greatly drops after opening weekend I bet. For people who frequent hunting forums(us), we hunt as often and as long as legally possible so it likely we have had success or know others who have after opening weekend.  I would think "the majority" of deer are harvested from opening weekend through Thanksgiving weekend since that's when the most number of guns are in the woods. 

[blackbeltbill]

   Phantom- one of the best Thread Titles in a long time indeed! 

    I had a Head Cold coming on after Roof Work on the 17th. I am up right now on the 20th and Training at 2.30am- but don't  think,I am going out for Firearms Deer this year after missing the first 2 Days and low motivation for Deer Hunting.

    I already know,I probably  won't  see anything on the 3rd day in Crowded areas.

   This corresponds  to Spring Turkey as well. By the 3rd Day- Gobbling definitely goes Downhill in Crowded areas because Dead Gobblers don't  Gobble and the rest know there is - " A Fly In The Soup" after watching Dark 2 Legged Giants sneaking towards their Roost Limbs at 45 Minutes before Sunrise.

 Again- Great Thread. 

[Phantom]

I agree with Zag's statement that hunting success odds being better on opening day  can vary depending on the area, whether it is private or public land. Personally, I believe that weather plays a significant role in deer sightings and overall success. I have always observed a greater number of deer during snowy and colder days. 

[phade]

8 hours ago, crappyice said:

The number of hunters in the woods greatly drops after opening weekend I bet. For people who frequent hunting forums(us), we hunt as often and as long as legally possible so it likely we have had success or know others who have after opening weekend.  I would think "the majority" of deer are harvested from opening weekend through Thanksgiving weekend since that's when the most number of guns are in the woods. 

This is accurate. I forget the % but I had access to that data when I used to write. The DEC would share it with me for the articles. The majority of deer taken in gun season are taken in the first weekend alone. For some reason 65% is sticking in my head. But it was convincing data (assuming you believe DEC info). Upticks in the weekend days but it’s a small piece of the pie left for the other 21 days in the season. They used to issue a harvest chart with days and kills. I haven’t seen it in years though. 

I personally think this week and into next is the toughest time of year to kill a good buck. I’d take the last weekend of gun over the second and third. By then, pressure wanes a bit, bucks may need to rely on bed to food patterns if the weather gets bad, etc. Late season is a lot like early save the hunting pressure having been there for a while.

[Swamp_bucks]

My best day during gun is thanksgiving after opening day.  Once everyone leaves the woods for dinner they are usually moving like normal.  We have dinner late so let’s me stay out.  But just from opening day to Sunday I bet the number dropped 65% on the piece I was on.  

[The_Real_TCIII]

I really dont see the pressure wane in my area, the same trucks are in the same spots for the most part from opening day right through the end of ML. So while I find it relatively easy to take does later in the gun seasons the bucks for me are few and far between

[The Back 40]

That might hold true for areas that are heavily hunted, the increased pressure, lots of shots being taken. The properties around mine only have a few people hunting them, I may have heard 1 or 2 shots fired from them this weekend and I didn't see any deer running or blowing from the neighbors property so they may not be feeling the pressure and just carry on as normal.

[hvny]

2 hours ago, phade said:

This is accurate. I forget the % but I had access to that data when I used to write. The DEC would share it with me for the articles. The majority of deer taken in gun season are taken in the first weekend alone. For some reason 65% is sticking in my head. But it was convincing data (assuming you believe DEC info). Upticks in the weekend days but it’s a small piece of the pie left for the other 21 days in the season. They used to issue a harvest chart with days and kills. I haven’t seen it in years though. 

I personally think this week and into next is the toughest time of year to kill a good buck. I’d take the last weekend of gun over the second and third. By then, pressure wanes a bit, bucks may need to rely on bed to food patterns if the weather gets bad, etc. Late season is a lot like early save the hunting pressure having been there for a while.

I remember years ago a study in PA with a number around 65% of bucks harvested on opening day(a Monday then).  Hunting pressure was significantly higher on that Monday and by Wednesday most hunters started heading home.    Between the deer become nocturnal and less guys in the woods after Tuesday to move them or even shoot them I can see how that would happen.  

[phade]

1 hour ago, The_Real_TCIII said:

I really dont see the pressure wane in my area, the same trucks are in the same spots for the most part from opening day right through the end of ML. So while I find it relatively easy to take does later in the gun seasons the bucks for me are few and far between

To some degree it is a numbers game. A lot of good bucks are shot opening weekend reducing the frequency with which one might see them. So I agree whole heartedly with that.

I think late season turns more into finding them on that pattern and targeting them. All but one of my December bucks here in NY were purposeful hunts to go after that buck. Only surprise I had was last year’s MZ buck on NYE. Both of my NY bucks last year were December.

Turns out the MZ buck was on an annual pattern visiting that location for about two weeks based on cam info. Last week of December and first week of January. Nothing before and nothing after. He was coming to food but never on my radar and I missed the info because I forgot to check an SD card for a cam that I had left out for a year plus. I pulled the cam as we put him in the UTV. That spot had a ton of prior pressure and the primary buck was taken on gun opener so I mistakenly overlooked the spot altogether.

I can only think of very few instances where I have even seen a good buck in December by luck or hunting blindly (choosing stands based on general food or bedding, etc) Most of them have been jump scenarios walking in, out, or one man pushes. I spend more time scouting that time of year rather than hunting, lately. If I can get into a fresh snow and look for large tracks in a food source I start to zero in. I also glass a lot more at dawn and dusk if I have nothing to go by. 

Hunting pressure around us still happens but late season is much much less. I’d guess it’s 5-10% for MZ season, especially if the weather hits hard. 

[fletchny11]

I would say it's prob accurate that a majority are shot opening weekend as that is the highest hunter precipitation.
I don't think the percentage is as steep as it was in the 80's and 90's. More opportunities earlier bow, late seasons etc. 

I historically have not had great luck in the opener.